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NBER Working Papers · September 14, 2026

Automation and Optimal Taxation: A Task-Based Theory -- by Henrik Kleven, Owen M. Zidar

EconomicsPublic Policy
THE AI ANGLE
Automating middle-class worker tasks and altering optimal labor tax progressivity

An NBER working paper by Henrik Kleven and Owen M. Zidar examines optimal labor and capital income taxation in a task-based model where machines substitute for workers up to a skill threshold. Calibrated to US wage data, the model finds automation peaks around the 40th wage percentile, requiring a more progressive labor tax schedule—larger EITC subsidies, lower middle-class taxes, and higher top rates—while optimal capital taxes remain sizable but unchanged.

THE TEACHING ANGLE
Instructors can explore how endogenous wage impacts from middle-skill task automation reshape optimal income redistribution without altering standard optimal capital tax rates.

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