The Macroeconomic Effect of AI: Sizing the Software Engineering Channel -- by Alex Blumenfeld, Jonathon Hazell, Chen Lian, Andreas Schaab

Researchers modeled the macroeconomic impact of AI by linking firm stock returns to software engineering payroll shares. They found that AI raised expected software engineering productivity by 32.6 percent between 2022 and 2025, implying a 3.6 to 6.5 percent GDP increase. These gains more than doubled by mid-2026 as coding agents advanced.

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